An Open Debate Over the UUP-Conservative Negotiations
Thursday 2nd October 2008, 10:54 pm by Rick Cairns
As the old saying goes, ‘a week is a long time in politics’, so coming back after over a year to blog for the Young Unionists it is hard to know where to pick up. When I was last writing I had the bit between my teeth over the Ulster Unionists taking the leap into oppositional territory in the Northern Ireland Assembly, as I was, and still am, a believer in providing effective opposition to those currently governing. On that point I believe it is getting clearer by the day the democratic deficit that exists In Northern Ireland and I hope the powers that be know it cannot last forever and will be actively exploring all avenues open to them.
The topic of the moment (apart from the non-meetings of the Northern Ireland Executive) is the ongoing speculation over the talks between David Cameron’s Conservative Party and the Ulster Unionist Party. I do not intend to sugar coat my analysis of the situation nor do I intend to spin a line simply to stay out of limelight: what I can offer is simply how I read the ongoing negotiations and the speculation by the media (blogosphere included) that can hopefully engender a healthy debate. I will try and take it point by point but I will be happy to respond to any issues raised at a later date or simply by replying to any comments.
Is it a merger?
To the best of my knowledge there has been zero talk about a merger within the UUP. To be frank a merger would be a crazy path to follow as beyond a few statistics gleamed from polls the two parties have very little firm evidence of what electoral response they will have. A federal model for cooperation appears much more workable, and certainly from an Ulster Unionist perspective, this will be the avenue that answers a lot of the questions. Models that have been mentioned elsewhere are the CDU/CSU model from Germany and a Canadian federal model. I have taken a look at the Bavarian model from Germany in a bit of detail and it certainly is interesting, but we will be setting our own precedent and looking at other models for inspiration.
What about those who identify with Labour, Lib Dem or anti-Tory?
Bob McCartney is probably best known for his campaign for equal citizenship and calls for the mainland UK parties to organise and campaign in Northern Ireland; I for one will relish the day when we have the established parties based along socio-economic lines, and those days are certainly getting a bit closer. Chris McGimpsey has already declared his discomfort and I respect him for his views as he has been a strong advocate for the union for many a year. Of course it is to be expected that those who are not naturally conservatives to look else where, but there are not many of them currently within the UUP or if they are they are more likely to horrified by Gordon Brown and New Labour.
I have heard a lot about the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985 that has led to anti-Tory feelings. Let me be clear: are unionists more happy to have Sinn Fein in government than to vote for a Conservative? If so I am worried.
What if the UUP are lumped with policies that are adverse to their own electorate?
A federal model, speficially for the Northern Ireland Assembly, allows the UUP to shape its manifestos and pledges to their own immediate electorate. At Westminster the ideal scenario for the UUP is to negotiate and sign up to a Conservative manifesto; the worst case scenario is they stand up for Northern Ireland’s interests when there is a conflict ie vote against the Conservative line.
What’s in it for the UUP?
An optimist would say to articulate the need for pan-UK Unionism, potentially having Ministers or Junior Ministers in the Cabinet, playing a full-time role representing Northern Ireland and of course injecting a bit of life-blood into the party. A cynic would say finance, direction and a slice of the pie (peerages). It is too early to pass judgment.
What’s in it for David Cameron?
Times have changed, the fight for the Union does not have Northern Ireland as the primary battlefield: It is now in Scotland in the shape of Alex Salmond. Being a ‘party of the union’ David Cameron needs to have a Conservative Party representing all the constituent parts of the UK and that (if you need reminding) includes Northern Ireland. The UUP can fulfill that role. Is it hard to see David Cameron as a Unionist? He is making the right noises and the move away (a deliberate move at that) from an English orientated party is positive and I dare say rewarding.
What’s the downside?
Here’s where I will get a few looks to kill over the next few days. Not only were the electorate blissfully unaware of the ongoing negotiations between the UUP and the Conservatives - so were the UUP party members which appears to stand in complete contrast to the NI Tories. For something as potentially important preparation is needed to enable the party to filter the news down in a controlled and manageable fashion. Too late now. Having just gone through a drawn out constitutional review with consultations throughout Northern Ireland I for one would have expected some effort by the leadership in this regard.
Scare tactics are being used to talk about Tory Candidates already ’selected’ to contest seats in Northern Ireland which is just a nuisance. David Trimble’s recent appearance at the Conservative Conference got a few tongues wagging about his role in all of this. For myself the Westminster seats of South Belfast and Fermangh & South Tyrone are an obstacle that needs to be dealt with delicately and I fear Lord Trimble’s remarks were out of touch with his former party.
Well I was going to do something like a ‘logical conclusion’ but I feel all unionists need to think long and hard about the UUP-Conservatve talks and potential future relationship. I am a unionist first and foremost and that will not change. The question I have asked myself is simple: ‘Would I feel uncomfortable as a Conservative Unionist?’.
The answer is no. I already am one.
Tags: Conservative Party, David Cameron, UUP
7 Responses to “An Open Debate Over the UUP-Conservative Negotiations”
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October 5th, 2008 at 6:13 am
There needs to be a full merger with the Conservatives. Anything less will not attract voters back.
It’s a shame that Sir Reg Empey appears to be squandering the ‘good will’ factor created after the initial announcement.
October 5th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
The problem Ulstersport is that the Conservatives in Northern Ireland are bringing zero votes with them, they have been organised and contesting elections for almost 20 years and have been completely rejected by the electorate. What the UUP have to ascertain is whether a ‘new political force’ ie Conservative & Unionist party has the power to reach places the UUP has failed to reach. If the Conservatives (and especially the NI Conservatives) are serious about a full merger then they surely must realise to get to that point there has to be some proof, some physical manifestation of how the Tory and UUP brand can work together. The way to find that out is in a federal relationship and to start testing the waters. As it has been put elsewhere it allows ‘plausible denialability’, for both parties, if it fails.
October 5th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
The reason that the NI Conservatives don’t bring many votes with them is that most Unionists have not wanted to split the vote further in past elections. I would suggest that there is not enough room for more than two Unionist parties in many areas given the strength of the anti-Unionist vote.
In the past many UUP supporters switched to voting for the DUP after the incompetence of Trimble during the negotiations which led to the Belfast Agreement (destruction of RUC, rights of people in NI to be part of the ‘Irish Nation’, prisoners etc). Many would consider switching back if something different was on offer i.e. a candidate representing a UK wide Unionist Party. There is no way they will switch back to the same old UUP with a loose link to the Conservatives.
The Conservatives will be the next Government of the UK. It’s time for the UUP to get on with the merger. If the UUP waits much longer they will become a complete irrelevance. But has Sir Reg Empey got the leadership skills to make it happen? The DUP were running scared. Now they are sensing that Sir Reg doesn’t have the courage to make it happen.
October 5th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Maybe there is a common misunderstanding of how a federal relationship will look like in practice. For example lets look at Local Government and Northern Ireland Assembly level: are people really going to be won over by a ‘candidate representing a UK wide Unionist Party’? We have PR elections for Stormont so lets not talk about vote splitting, the tories failed because they had next to no-one in touch with NI issues. At these levels the UUP have to prove their competence and have policies and campaigns to address Northern Ireland issues.
Now when it comes to Westminster it is a different story. There we can run under a Conservative manifesto as the UUP can negotiate then ‘buy in’ to it. Of course you are right in one respect - it is all about being seen to change. That change has to be based on realistic expectations. I for one hope that David Cameron is the next PM, but I find the argument that because there will be a Conservative government shortly that the UUP just go full steam ahead with a merger quite frankly ridiculous; what about the next Labour government? The UUP should be looking to build for the future, building solid foundations and promoting people with talent who are connected with their electorate. This will require a ground up competency based approach rather than than an implementation from above.
October 5th, 2008 at 9:53 pm
“what about the next Labour government?”
Those Unionists within the UUP who support Labour should be pushing for the UK Labour Party to organise more formally in Northern Ireland:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/northern_ireland/5384716.stm
The idea should be for normal politics to return to Northern Ireland.
In relation to your cautious approach to merging with the Conservative Party, it simply is not going to work. David Cameron talked about a new force in NI politics and offering people a new choice. The UUP needs to ’seize the day’ or admit that the talk of a new force in NI politics was just hot air. By the time your “ground up competency based approach” could have any effect it will be too late for the Union.
October 6th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
Ulstersport,
Personally I would welcome Labour organising in Northern Ireland, not an issue for me. Maybe if the Conservatives had taken more interest in the Union before David Cameron’s recent talks with the UUP then maybe you would have a platform to criticise the Ulster Unionists. The UUP in Northern Ireland have done what they thought best for the union, at times the results may be questioned, but it is not to be lectured from the ‘holier than thou’ standpoint you are taking. It is not the UUP than have opted out of Northern Ireland.
If the concerns from a UUP point of view are unfathomable to you, then maybe that says something.
October 6th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
None of the parties are ‘holier than thou’ - including the UUP and the Conservatives. It’s time to draw a line and move forward. I want a Conservative & Unionist Party in NI to succeed. I hope the leadership of the UUP has the vision to create something exciting for all those interested in the Union. That will require a full merger between the parties. Best wishes to all those involved in the negotiations.